Landmine clearance and economic development: Evidence from multispectral satellite imagery, nighttime lights, and conflict events in Afghanistan

The widespread prevalence of unexploded landmines in many countries leads to thousands of deaths and injuries annually. In addition, landmines may block transport corridors – restricting the flow of goods and people – and prevent the productive use of contaminated land. We study the clearance of more than 15,000 hazardous areas in Afghanistan over the past several decades, obtaining precise geographic boundaries for these areas. We use multispectral Landsat-series imagery to develop measures of land use and crop productivity, allowing us to detect effects even in rural areas, where impacts have been more difficult to observe in prior papers relying on nighttime lights as proxies of economic activity. We conduct event study estimations of the impacts of clearance, leveraging the staggered roll-out of this clearance while avoiding forbidden comparisons. The clearance of hazardous areas leads to changes in land use and agricultural productivity, as well as broader increases in economic activity reflected in nighttime lights. We also find reductions in conflict risks due to the clearance of hazardous areas. Landmine action efforts appear to have substantial economic effects even in areas with ongoing conflict risks.