Agriculture, Climate, and Environment

New technologies, big data, and counterfactual research to solve interconnected development issues

Overview

While climate change will likely prove enormously disruptive to global environment and agricultural systems, the world’s poorest countries are the most vulnerable by far. They will need investments in development programs to spur the adoption of climate-sensitive agricultural practices that can adapt to unprecedented changes in weather, rainfall, and extreme heat events. Yet, aid organizations and domestic governments alike often lack the information they need to efficiently invest in these programs and measure their impacts.

AidData is a pioneer in using new technologies, big data, and counterfactual research methods to better evaluate these development programs. Over the last four years, we’ve mobilized over $7.5m in funding for agriculture, climate, and environment-focused research, publishing over a dozen geospatial impact evaluations (GIEs) of programs around the world. Our interdisciplinary team has specialized expertise in GIS, survey methods, remote sensing, and machine learning, as well as substantive expertise in climate change, conservation, economic development, gender, land rights, local governance, and natural resource management.

GeoField: How can we better leverage Earth Observation for impact evaluations of climate-sensitive agriculture?

Bringing together experts in agriculture, climate, data and development

AidData is leading a team of partners that has won a $4.74-million, four-year investment from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for a project to spur the use of Earth Observation in how we study climate-sensitive agriculture across developing country geographies.

GeoField.org represents a new effort by three organizations (AidData, DevGlobal Partners, and Mercy Corps) to bridge the gaps between three specializations: climate sensitive-agriculture, Earth Observation, and development program impact evaluations. Our goal is to help aid organizations invest and measure impact in climate adaptation and agriculture programs by improving access to methods and resources that translate direct observations of long-term climate and land use changes into program-ready insights.

Blog: AidData and partners hold conference on climate-sensitive agriculture at the UN's FAO in Rome

November 2021, Gharelu, Nepal. Sharda Devi Bohor, 45, and her family have benefitted from disaster mitigation measures, like the building of gabion walls that prevent mudslides.

Case Studies

Can sweet potato uptake spread through social networks?

Leveraging surveys and remote sensing techniques to evaluate gender-related household impacts in Ethiopia and Ghana

AidData is currently evaluating two sweet potato programs in Ethiopia and Ghana that are being implemented by the International Potato Center (CIP). In Ghana, the Hewlett Foundation and the Commonwealth Center for Energy and the Environment at William and Mary have funded an evaluation of the impact of men and women’s social networks as well as how the selection of men versus women and peer vs leader community based sweet potato educators can impact the adoption of sweet potatoes as well as the uptake of sweet potato technologies such as the Triple S methodology. In Ethiopia, AidData is working with USAID and CIP to retrospectively evaluate a humanitarian assistance project that delivered sweet potato vines and potato seeds to farmers in selected locations across Ethiopia. Researchers are using a mixture of household surveys and remote sensing techniques to evaluate whether or not there were any impacts on households due to this program.  

Enumerators measure the size of an agricultural plot in Ghana using GPS. AidData’s experience there has demonstrated the importance of collecting data about farming from both men and women to get accurate results. Photo by Katherine Nolan.

Can small-scale irrigation investments help farmers in Mali adapt to climate change long term?

Examining 1,000 distinct locations in rural Mali where small-scale irrigation was introduced over the past two decades

Mali is exposed to dry, hot conditions and extreme climatic events like droughts, heavy and irregular rains, and heat waves. The agricultural sector of Mali, with 80 percent of its population engaged in agricultural activities, holds great potential for driving economic growth. But rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall mean more water is needed for agriculture—across the Sahel, including in Mali, agriculture is largely rainfed.

AidData, with the German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), spent some two years evaluating whether small irrigation projects helped farmers in Mali adapt to future climate change shocks. The researchers incorporated a multitude of diverse datasets as they looked at the impacts in nearly 1,000 distinct locations in rural Mali where small-scale irrigation was introduced over the past two decades. While rigorous impact evaluations of small-scale agriculture have mainly explored the short-term effects of these projects, few have explored more long-lasting effects, and this is critical in assessing whether vulnerabilities have been permanently reduced, and what policies should be adopted. The researchers explored a number of topics including agricultural productivity, childhood mortality, gender issues, conflict and others. Results were published in PNAS Nexus: https://www.aiddata.org/publications/irrigation-strengthens-climate-resilience-long-term-evidence-from-mali-using-satellites-and-surveys

This satellite image shows the Tomboctou-Timbuktu region in the northern part of Mali, along the Niger River. Photo by Google Earth.

How can we uncover gender bias in household agriculture surveys?

Collecting gender-disaggregated geospatial data to better understand measurement error in agricultural impact evaluations

In 2022 researchers leading AidData’s Gender Equity in Development Initiative are working with local partners in Ghana to collect gender-disaggregated geospatial data and better understand measurement error in agricultural impact evaluations. Ghana struggles with widening regional inequality, agricultural decline, and natural resource depletion. Climate change is worsening patterns of inequality. With the  Ghana Center for Democratic Development(CDD-Ghana), evaluated the effectiveness of a rural earthen dam project, and separately as part of another grant identified the measurement error in self-reported agricultural characteristics through the collection of gender-disaggregated geospatial data.https://www.aiddata.org/blog/lab-in-the-field-aiddata-and-cdd-ghana-partner-on-research-to-evaluate-household-impacts-of-dams-in-ghana

A behavioral games survey in Ghana. Photo by Katherine Nolan.

Can developing countries accept Chinese-financed infrastructure without sacrificing their forests?

A closer look at the forest versus the trees

The scale and scope of China's overseas infrastructure activities now rival or exceed that the largest traditional donors and lenders. From 2000 to 2014, China provided over $350 billion in official finance for development, with much of that going towards infrastructure, according to AidData's research. Teaming up with the MacArthur Foundation, AidData used a novel dataset to measure the impacts of these Chinese-funded infrastructure projects on forest health in three of the world’s most ecologically sensitive regions: the Tropical Andes, the Great Lakes region of Africa, and the Mekong Delta. The resulting study highlights the crucial role that domestic environmental governance plays in protecting forests: forest loss actually slowed in areas with strong protection regimes in place. But these effects reversed, and forest loss increased, in countries where forests were not adequately protected by host governments.

Over the last two decades, the People's Republic of China has provided record amounts of international development finance and established itself as a financier of first resort for many low- and middle-income countries. China's international development finance commitments now average $85 billion annually, roughly double those of the U.S. Yet very little is known about the environmental risks posed by the infrastructure projects that China has financed. Many have questioned whether China is sufficiently prudent in its design and implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects. There is particular concern about the siting of projects funded by the Chinese government, particularly those that facilitate legal and illegal logging, agricultural frontier expansion, and human settlements in previously remote or pristine areas. We study the siting and impacts of Chinese government-funded road improvements in Cambodia, where over the past two decades China's state-owned banks have supplied more than $4 billion for 30 projects building, rehabilitating or upgrading over 3,000 km of major roadways. Cambodia's forests contain some of the most biologically diverse habitats in the world, and have experienced dramatic deforestation over the past two decades.

Blog: Chinese-funded infrastructure in endangered forests: What is the data telling us?

Blog: Is it possible for infrastructure not to hurt forests?

Rice fields captured by a drone stretch away to the horizon in Kampong Chhnang, Cambodia. Drones are increasing used in evaluations of development to capture hyper-local imagery. Photo by Tithsamnang Khorn, used under the Unsplash license.

Program Team

For technical or research inquires, contact:

Research & Evaluation

Ariel BenYishay

Chief Economist, Director of Research and Evaluation

Research & Evaluation

Jessica Wells

Research Scientist

Research & Evaluation

Katherine Nolan

Research Scientist

Research & Evaluation

Kunwar Singh

Senior Geospatial Scientist

Research & Evaluation

Rachel Sayers

Research Scientist

Research & Evaluation

Seth Goodman

Research Scientist

Research & Evaluation

Jacob Hall

Data Analyst

Research & Evaluation

Pratap Khattri

Junior Data Analyst

Research & Evaluation

Sara Sayedi

Postdoctoral Fellow

Research & Evaluation

Wanqi (Angie) Zhu

Junior Data Analyst

Alex Wooley

Director of Partnerships and Communications