Europe & Eurasia

Quantifying Russia's influence on civic space, energy security and media resilience

Quanitifying Russia's influence on civic space, energy security and media resilience

As part of a three-year research effort, AidData has produced diagnostics and analysis to support civic space, media resilience, and energy security and counter Russian influence in 17 Eastern European and Eurasian countries.

Samantha Custer

Director of Policy Analysis

Rodney Knight

Deputy Director of Research

Jonathan A. Solis

Senior Research Analyst

For partnerships and media queries, contact:

Alex Wooley

Director of Partnerships and Communications

Regional Synthesis

This regional synthesis report monitors trends in the health of civic space across Europe and Eurasia (E&E) over time (2015 to 2021) in the lead up to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In conjunction with historical data, we draw upon the results of a 2022 AidData survey to capture contemporary insights on perceptions of civil society organizations across the E&E region and identify the best avenues to further strengthen the capacity of these domestic actors without undercutting their credibility.

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Research in Context

Democracy is one of four cornerstone initiatives in W&M’s Vision 2026 strategic plan. Ukraine has held firm in its fight for democracy since Russia’s full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. AidData's Samantha Custer sat down with another expert at William & Mary's Global Research Institute to discuss the developments of the past year and where this conflict might be headed.

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Civic Space

Comparable data to quantify and monitor country vulnerabilities

Policymakers have long been concerned about "eroding civic space" in light of a wave of rising authoritarianism and democratic backsliding. Yet, advocates for strengthening civic space rarely had reliable and comparable data to quantify and monitor country vulnerabilities, nor were US policymakers able quantify the best avenues for US assistance.

The challenge of increase resilience is particularly heightened in post-Soviet countries due to concerns regarding Kremlin attempts to disrupt societies, stoke discord, and counter democratic norms in an attempt to maintain Russia's sphere of influence.

AidData created 14 indicators to monitor trends in the health of civic space over time from 2015 to 2021 in a comparable way across 17 countries and 7 occupied territories. These indicators asses the domestic environment for citizens to assemble peacefully and to express their views without fear of retribution. They also assess the channels by which the Kremlin may exert external influence to skew or constrain civic space.

In addition to these historical indicators, AidData expanded its in-house Listening to Leaders sampling frame to field two first-of-their-kind surveys of representatives of Civil Society Organizations and their constituents across 16 countries (excluding Ukraine) in 2022. The surveys triangulated information on the health of civil society organizations (CSOs) in Eastern Europe and Eurasia by hearing from the perspectives of organization staff and the views of their constituents in a comparable way.

Energy Security

Due to the interconnected nature of energy markets and relative opacity of related investments, it is difficult to understand how countries in Eastern Europe and Eurasia govern energy resources, the influence of foreign energy suppliers like Russia, and the effectiveness of USG efforts to bolster energy security in the region. Although there are existing indices that monitor global energy trends, none of these tools adequately address energy security trends unique to Europe & Eurasia. Systematically track and analyze energy governance and security in the region over time with an eye towards informing how best to target assistance towards Eastern European countries to decrease their dependence on natural gas imports and strengthen the resilience of their institutions to avoid capture.

*AidData's research on policy issues in Europe & Eurasia covers 17 countries in the Balkans, Caucasus, Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions.*

Media Resilience

How well positioned are societies are to navigate inadvertent misinformation or intentional disinformation?

AidData produced diagnostics and analysis to support media resilience in 17 countries in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. These measures overcome a critical shortcoming in existing data on media freedom and trust in media. Existing data focuses primarily on domestic rather than external threats, especially Russia.

AidData's 31 indicators of media resilience provide a comprehensive, multi-faceted snapshot across countries and over time in order to gauge how the degree of resilience with which a media system responds to externally influenced narratives.

We've also researched the presence of Russian state-owned media in these countries, along with the ownership breakdown of top media outlets in these 17 countries with known or suspected Kremlin ties.

To assess how citizens view the domestic media environment, how they source and consume information, and in which ways they assess the credibility of their information sources, AidData designed and field a general population online survey for 10 countries.

Finally, AidData analyzed the sentiment of content produced by a subset of domestic media over a 3-5 year period with regard to key words of relevance to foreign policy issues.